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I bond: October or November?by plusbeauxjours

Not affiliated with the U.S. Treasury, TreasuryDirect or BLS.

How the I bond rate is calculated

Every formula, date and rounding rule behind our numbers, with the TreasuryDirect and federal-rule sources.

The composite rate

An I bond earns a composite rate made of a fixed rate (F) and a semiannual inflation rate (I). The rule (31 CFR 359.14) is:

composite = [F/2 + I + I × F/2] × 2 = F + 2I + F × I, rounded to 0.01%

Example from TreasuryDirect: 0.0090 + 0.0334 + 0.0001503 = 0.0425503, so 0.90% fixed and 1.67% inflation give 4.26%. The federal rule's own example: 2.00% and 0.28% give 0.025656, or 2.57%. The composite never goes below 0.00% (359.13), so deflation can pull it below the fixed rate, but a bond's value never drops from one month to the next. In May 2009 inflation was −2.78%, and bonds with a fixed rate under 2.78% earned 0.00% for 6 months.

Note: TreasuryDirect's rates page shows this example under a heading for Nov 2025 to Apr 2026 (4.03%), but the math uses the May 2026 numbers. We follow the math.

The inflation part

The inflation rate comes from the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted. The Nov 1 rate compares September with the March before it; the May 1 rate compares March with the September before it (31 CFR 359.11):

inflation = (CPI now − CPI 6 months earlier) ÷ CPI 6 months earlier, rounded to 0.01%

CPI-U values behind the current and next rate
MonthCPI-U (NSA)Used for
Sept 2025324.800May 2026 rate (start)
Mar 2026330.213May 2026 rate (end): 1.67%; Nov 2026 rate (start)
Aug 2026334.980Latest published: +1.44% over March
Sept 2026Out Wed, Oct 14, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET ForecastNov 2026 rate (end)

Until September's index is out, the Nov 1 inflation rate is a forecast. Our default takes August's index and adds the median September change from 2014 to 2025 (+0.1877%): a September index of 335.609, which gives 1.63% and a composite of 4.17% if the fixed rate stays 0.90%. Past Septembers range from 1.29% (2015, −0.16%) to 1.98% (2017, +0.53%). A September index of 335.712 or more keeps the rate at 1.67%. Later CPI revisions are ignored (31 CFR 359 App. C). If a month's CPI isn't reported by the end of the next month, Treasury announces a substitute index based on the last 12-month change.

The fixed rate

“The Secretary, or the Secretary's designee, determines the fixed rate” (31 CFR 359.10). There is no published formula. It applies to bonds issued in the next 6 months, for each bond's whole life, and it is never below 0.00%. That's why the November fixed rate is always an Assumption on this site until Treasury announces it: we don't forecast it.

Rates are announced each May 1 and Nov 1. If Treasury is closed that day, the announcement comes the next business day, but the rates still start on the 1st (31 CFR 359.9). Nov 1, 2026 is a Sunday. Last year's November rate came out Mon, Nov 3, 2025; the May 2026 release is listed under April 2026 on TreasuryDirect's news page. The exact day and time this November are not confirmed.

When a bond's rate changes

Each bond's rate changes every 6 months, counted from its own issue month (31 CFR 359.15), and each 6-month period uses the latest rate announced when it starts. An October bond changes on Apr 1 and Oct 1; a November bond on May 1 and Nov 1. So an October 2026 bond earns 4.26% from Oct 1, 2026 to Mar 31, 2027, and gets the Nov 2026 inflation rate only from Apr 1, 2027. A November bond starts on the Nov 2026 rate right away.

The issue date is the first day of the month TreasuryDirect receives your funds (before midnight ET). Oct 31, 2026 is a Saturday, so the last business day for an October issue date is Fri, Oct 30, 2026. Funds must be received before midnight ET; end-of-month purchases may get next month's issue date.

How value grows: the $25 unit

Interest is added monthly and compounds every 6 months (31 CFR 359.16). Treasury values a $25 unit (359.39):

value = PV × (1 + rate ÷ 2)^(months ÷ 6), rounded to the cent

PV is the unit's value at the start of the current 6-month period (already rounded). A bond is then valued from the unit: amount ÷ $25 × unit value, and electronic bonds use round_half_up(amount ÷ 100 × value of a $100 bond) (359.19, 359.55). Examples from the rules: a $25 unit at 2.57% for 6 months is $25.32, so $5,000 is $5,064 (not $5,064.25); a $34.59 book-entry bond with a $100 value of 101.96 is worth $35.27. Half a cent rounds up: 25.045 → 25.05. That's why a $10,000 bond's value moves in $4.00 steps.

We compute every value exactly: rates as exact fractions, money in whole cents, and the 6th-root step checked with integer arithmetic, so no floating-point rounding decides a cent. One thing is unverified: how TreasuryDirect rounds an exact half-cent tie in the monthly step. We round it up (example: $25.50 at 4.02% for 3 months is exactly 25.755 → $25.76). A true tie needs a perfect-power growth factor and can only happen with what-if rates; official rates never hit it.

Cash-in rules

  • You can't cash in before 12 months (bonds issued Feb 2003 and later). Disaster-area waivers exist.
  • Cash in before 5 years and you lose the last 3 months of interest: after 18 months you get the first 15 months of interest. You never get back less than you paid.
  • I bonds earn interest for 30 years. Electronic bonds are paid automatically at maturity.
  • Limits: $10,000 of electronic I bonds per person per calendar year, $25 minimum, any amount to the penny. Gifts count toward the recipient's limit in the year delivered. Paper I bonds ended Jan 1, 2025.
  • Interest is subject to federal income tax, not state or local income tax. Report it yearly or when you cash in.

The October vs November comparison

We value the same amount bought in October 2026 (fixed 0.90%, locked) and in November 2026 (fixed = your assumption) on the same calendar date: Nov 1 of 2026 plus your hold (Oct 1, 2056 for 30 years, when the October bond matures). Both values include the 3-month penalty when the date is under 5 years. Every announcement after Nov 2026 uses the “inflation after April 2027” assumption (by default the same as Nov 2026), for both bonds.

The break-even is the lowest November fixed rate, in steps of 0.01% from 0.00% to 5.00%, at which waiting is worth at least as much as buying in October. The November value never falls as the fixed rate rises, so a binary search finds the same answer as checking every step. We show it as a number up to 3.00%.

Forecast, calculated, official

  • Forecast until BLS publishes September's CPI (Wed, Oct 14, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET).
  • Calculated from BLS data after that: the Nov 1 inflation rate from the formula above. Treasury confirms around Nov 1.
  • Official once Treasury announces the November rates.

This page switches when we update the data and publish, never by your device's clock. Right now it shows: Forecast.

Rate history

Fixed and semiannual inflation rates of every announcement since Sept 1998, and the composite for new bonds.

Show all 57 announcements
I bond rates by announcement (newest first)
AnnouncedFixedInflation (6 months)Composite, new bonds
May 20260.90%1.67%4.26%
Nov 20250.90%1.56%4.03%
May 20251.10%1.43%3.98%
Nov 20241.20%0.95%3.11%
May 20241.30%1.48%4.28%
Nov 20231.30%1.97%5.27%
May 20230.90%1.69%4.30%
Nov 20220.40%3.24%6.89%
May 20220.00%4.81%9.62%
Nov 20210.00%3.56%7.12%
May 20210.00%1.77%3.54%
Nov 20200.00%0.84%1.68%
May 20200.00%0.53%1.06%
Nov 20190.20%1.01%2.22%
May 20190.50%0.70%1.90%
Nov 20180.50%1.16%2.83%
May 20180.30%1.11%2.52%
Nov 20170.10%1.24%2.58%
May 20170.00%0.98%1.96%
Nov 20160.00%1.38%2.76%
May 20160.10%0.08%0.26%
Nov 20150.10%0.77%1.64%
May 20150.00%−0.80%0.00%
Nov 20140.00%0.74%1.48%
May 20140.10%0.92%1.94%
Nov 20130.20%0.59%1.38%
May 20130.00%0.59%1.18%
Nov 20120.00%0.88%1.76%
May 20120.00%1.10%2.20%
Nov 20110.00%1.53%3.06%
May 20110.00%2.30%4.60%
Nov 20100.00%0.37%0.74%
May 20100.20%0.77%1.74%
Nov 20090.30%1.53%3.36%
May 20090.10%−2.78%0.00%
Nov 20080.70%2.46%5.64%
May 20080.00%2.42%4.84%
Nov 20071.20%1.53%4.28%
May 20071.30%1.21%3.74%
Nov 20061.40%1.55%4.52%
May 20061.40%0.50%2.41%
Nov 20051.00%2.85%6.73%
May 20051.20%1.79%4.80%
Nov 20041.00%1.33%3.67%
May 20041.00%1.19%3.39%
Nov 20031.10%0.54%2.19%
May 20031.10%1.77%4.66%
Nov 20021.60%1.23%4.08%
May 20022.00%0.28%2.57%
Nov 20012.00%1.19%4.40%
May 20013.00%1.44%5.92%
Nov 20003.40%1.52%6.49%
May 20003.60%1.91%7.49%
Nov 19993.40%1.76%6.98%
May 19993.30%0.86%5.05%
Nov 19983.30%0.86%5.05%
Sept 19983.40%0.62%4.66%

How we checked it

Our calculator reproduces, to the cent and the basis point:

  • all 1,653 composite rates in TreasuryDirect's I bond rate chart (every issue window × every announcement);
  • 34 bond values from TreasuryDirect's Savings Bond Calculator ($50 to $5,000, issued 1998 to 2025);
  • all 57 inflation rates from the CPI values Treasury used;
  • the examples in 31 CFR 359 and the last three Fiscal Service press releases.

The comparison itself uses assumptions: the November fixed rate and future inflation. Values for past dates match TreasuryDirect; values for future dates are projections. Try it on your own bond or the October vs November comparison. Treasury's own page: I bonds interest rates (opens in a new tab).

Sources

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  1. TreasuryDirect: I bonds (opens in a new tab)

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    Primary source
  2. TreasuryDirect: I bonds interest rates (opens in a new tab)

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    Primary source
  3. TreasuryDirect: I bond rate chart (PDF) (opens in a new tab)

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    Primary source
  4. Primary source
  5. Primary source
  6. Primary source
  7. TreasuryDirect: Buy a savings bond (opens in a new tab)

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    Primary source
  8. Primary source
  9. TreasuryDirect: Cash in a savings bond (opens in a new tab)

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    Primary source
  10. Primary source
  11. TreasuryDirect: Savings Bond Calculator (opens in a new tab)

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    Primary source
  12. Primary source
  13. Primary source
  14. Primary source

Changes

  • : launched with the current 4.26% rate and a forecast for the Nov 1, 2026 inflation part. Next update after BLS publishes September's CPI on Oct 14, then after Treasury announces the November rates.